1.Land resource college of Huazhong Agricultural University;2.Science college of Huazhong Agricultural University
To scientifically analyze income changes of farmers’ households after land transfer, this paper explains incentives of decision-making behavior of farmers’ land transfer by micro-economics models, then uses Logistic to analyze influencing factors of farmers’ decision on land transfer and uses Propensity Score Matching to test income effect based on rural household’s data from survey in the eastern part of Hubei province. The results imply that ：(1) Education level, land management area, number of agriculural labor force, policy cognition and property right cognition have a significant positive impact on farmers' decision on land flow in. Age of household heads, management type, endowment insurance and policy cognition are the main incentives for farmers to low out land and engage in off-farm activities. (2) Land flow in or out is beneficial to raise farmers’ household income since the income growth rate of land flow-in farmers and land flow-out farmers is 12.74% and 7.57% compared with land non-flow farmers respectively. (3) There are significant structural differences in the income growth effect between land flow in farmers and land flow out farmers. The former contribution rates of operating income, wage income, transfer income and property income to household income increasing are 62.87%, 26.24%, 9.05% and 1.84%, and the latter contribution rates are 52.41%, 88.69%, 25.09% and 40.33% respectively. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as cultivating new-type agricultural businesses and adopting new transfer pattern to promote the efficiency of agricultural production, as well as further reforming land tenure policy and broadening channel for non-agricultural employment to smoothly transfer rural land and surplus labor force.