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      2. 農業保險排斥對農民收入的影響:基于傾向值匹配和異質性分析的研究
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        作者單位:

        1.農業農村部農村經濟研究中心;2.農業農村部管理干部學院

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        國家自然科學基金項目(面上項目,重點項目,重大項目)


        Effect from Exclusion of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers' Income in China:a Study based on PSM Method and Heterogeneity Analysis
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        Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

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          摘要:

          本文利用2015-2016年北方6省12縣種植業保險的調研數據,系統考察了農業保險排斥對農民收入的影響。首先,本文采用OLS方法和Oaxaca-Blinder方法估計農業保險排斥對農民收入有顯著負向影響,受排斥農戶與未受排斥農戶的農業收入差異為6%。進一步,本文利用傾向得分匹配法糾正可能存在的樣本選擇性偏誤,所得結論依然穩健??紤]異質性后的實證研究結果表明,未受排斥的年輕農戶和規模擴大型農戶農業收入增長明顯。此外,相較于高受災農戶,未受排斥的低受災農戶因為受災和補償概率較低,農業保費成為農業額外成本從而降低了收入。本文提出政策建議:持續推進政策性農業保險“提標、擴面、增品”,降低農村農業保險排斥,充分發揮農業保險在促進農民收入增長過程中的作用。

          Abstract:

          In this paper, the impact of agricultural insurance exclusion on farmers' income was systematically investigated. The micro-level data in this paper were generated from a survey about agricultural insurance in 12 counties of 6 northern provinces in 2015. To begin with, Based on OLS and Oaxaca-Blinder strategy, we get conclusion that agricultural insurance exclusion has a significant negative impact on farmers' income, and the difference in agricultural income between excluded farmers and non-excluded farmers is 6%. Furthermore, the Propensity Score Matching method is adopted to correct the possible sample selectivity bias. The main above conclusion is still robust. We adopted sub-sample studies to deal with heterogeneity. The empirical result shows that the increase of agricultural income for young farms and expanded non-excluded farmers is obvious. In addition, compared with the farmers with higher risk of disaster, low affected farmers who are not excluded have a low probability of being affected and getting compensation. So agricultural premiums become additional agricultural costs and reduce their income. Therefore, policy implications have been generated.The government need to promote policy-based agricultural insurance by increasing compensation level, expanding scope and designing more insurance plan. By reducing the exclusion, agricultural insurance would play more significant rolde in promoting income of farmers.

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        • 收稿日期:2020-03-20
        • 最后修改日期:2020-05-31
        • 錄用日期:2020-06-21
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